Eskom Signals Stable Winter Outlook as System Reliability Improves

Eskom has reported sustained improvements in grid stability ahead of peak winter demand, with system availability reaching approximately 98.9 per cent and no load shedding projected in the coming months.

As South Africa enters its winter season, traditionally marked by increased electricity demand and heightened system risk, the utility said its power network remains stable, supported by gains under its Generation Recovery Plan and improved operational discipline.

The utility reported that the country has recorded 350 consecutive days without supply interruptions since May 2025, a milestone that underscores a marked turnaround in system reliability following years of persistent outages.

Central to this progress has been a sharp reduction in reliance on diesel-powered generation. For the financial year to date, spanning 1 to 30 April 2026, diesel expenditure fell to R374.93 million, compared with R2.347 billion over the same period last year, an 84 per cent decline.

The drop reflects improved plant performance and reduced dependence on open-cycle gas turbines, which are typically deployed during peak demand or system emergencies. Eskom said diesel usage in the past week had been limited to strategic deployment during periods of higher-than-expected demand to maintain reserves in line with grid requirements.

Performance indicators also point to gradual strengthening of the generation fleet. Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF), a key measure of plant performance, rose to 60.14 per cent, up from 56.01 per cent a year earlier, despite an increase in planned maintenance activities aimed at improving long-term reliability.

At the same time, unplanned outages declined, with average breakdowns falling to 12,795 megawatts between 24 and 30 April, compared with 14,649 megawatts during the same period last year. This reduction contributed to a less constrained grid and improved supply margins.

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor, which tracks unexpected outages, also improved, dropping to 26.65 per cent over the same period, down from 30.86 per cent a year earlier, indicating better control over system disruptions.

Planned maintenance, reflected in the Planned Capability Loss Factor, rose slightly to 13.87 per cent, aligning with Eskom’s strategy to prioritise reliability and environmental compliance through proactive servicing of ageing infrastructure.

Despite ongoing maintenance, Eskom said generation capacity continues to exceed demand. For the evening peak on 1 May, demand was forecast at 24,274 megawatts against available capacity of 28,337 megawatts, providing a comfortable reserve margin.

The utility also plans to bring an additional 3,063 megawatts online ahead of peak demand on 4 May, further strengthening system resilience during the high-demand winter period.

Eskom’s Winter Outlook, published in April and covering the period through to the end of August, projects no load shedding, provided current performance levels are sustained.

Beyond generation improvements, the utility highlighted progress in its efforts to address load reduction, an intervention used in high-risk areas to protect infrastructure from overloading due to illegal connections and electricity theft.

To date, 352,968 customers have been removed from load reduction schedules, with the programme fully eliminated in provinces such as the Northern Cape and Western Cape.

Eskom said it aims to phase out load reduction entirely by 2027 through targeted interventions, including the rollout of smart meters, infrastructure upgrades and expanded access to Free Basic Electricity.

More than 1.6 million smart meters have been deployed nationwide since the programme began, with a significant proportion installed in high-risk areas across Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal.

The utility noted, however, that progress has been hindered in some communities by resistance to installations, including incidents of intimidation and disruption, which have delayed more than 122,000 planned meter conversions.

Despite these challenges, Eskom said it remains committed to modernising the grid and improving service delivery through technology-driven solutions and stakeholder engagement.

Registrations for Free Basic Electricity have also increased, reaching over 569,000 customers, up more than 17 per cent from baseline levels, though still below the estimated 2.1 million eligible households.

While the power system remains stable, Eskom warned that illegal connections and meter tampering continue to pose risks to infrastructure and public safety. The utility has called on communities to report such activities and support efforts to protect the network.

The improved performance comes amid broader efforts to restore confidence in South Africa’s power sector, which has long been plagued by supply shortages and operational challenges.