AEW 2026: Panel to Address Africa's Fuel Security Gap

African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 will examine how governments and investors can expand refining capacity and strengthen regional supply networks to reduce Africa's exposure to volatile international fuel markets, as sub-Saharan African oil-product demand is projected to reach 186 million tonnes by 2045.

The "Fuel Security & Supply in a Volatile Market" panel, part of the Downstream and Petrochemical Forum at AEW 2026, will bring together industry leaders to discuss how African markets can manage currency pressures, price volatility and supply disruptions while building more resilient domestic and regional fuel systems. The session, sponsored by Sancorp Group, takes place as part of AEW 2026, running October 12-16 in Cape Town.

Dangote Refinery reshapes regional fuel flows

Nigeria sits at the centre of the continent's refining shift. The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery has become a major exporter of refined products and is reshaping regional and international fuel flows, while pursuing further expansion, efforts to source more of its crude domestically, and a distribution network powered by compressed natural gas (CNG).

Its development illustrates how integrated refining and distribution infrastructure can strengthen a country's fuel security while opening up new regional trade opportunities.

Other West African countries are adding to that momentum. Niger has signed a $1.9 billion agreement with Zimar to build a new refinery in Dosso, while Ghana is modernising its Tema Oil Refinery. Both projects form part of a wider effort across the region to cut dependence on imported fuel and reduce exposure to shipping costs, currency swings and supply disruptions.

North Africa is pursuing a different strategy, one focused on adding more value to its existing hydrocarbon output rather than simply expanding capacity. Algeria is investing $7 billion to expand its refining and petrochemical base, aiming to raise the share of hydrocarbons converted into higher-value products from 32% to 50%.

The investment includes upgrades at the Arzew and Skikda complexes and new plants for polypropylene and linear alkylbenzene, chemical building blocks used to manufacture plastics and detergents.

The approach places petrochemicals at the centre of Algeria's efforts to industrialise, diversify its exports and capture more value from domestic resources.

South Africa exposes risks of import dependence

South Africa illustrates the challenges facing countries with limited domestic refining capacity. Greater reliance on imported fuel has raised the importance of secure supply networks and strategic reserves, a stockpile of fuel a country holds to cushion against supply disruptions.

The downstream market there is also shifting, with the UAE's ADNOC acquiring Shell's South African retail network, covering around 580 service stations, in a deal worth about $1 billion.

Financing is expected to play a central role in translating these plans into lasting infrastructure. Ghana's Local Content Fund is expected to offer concessionary financing to indigenous companies, while Angola is expanding financing support for more than 1,000 domestic energy-service businesses.

Sancorp Group has deployed more than $2 billion across the continent and continues to expand its trading, financing and downstream operations.

NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber, who organises AEW, said Africa cannot achieve genuine fuel security while remaining dependent on volatile international markets and imported products.

According to Ayuk, the continent needs regional refining capacity, stronger supply networks and investment that retains more value within African economies while protecting consumers from global price shocks.