Eskom's EAF Hits 70% as Load Reduction Falls Sharply

Eskom's weekly Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has stayed above 70% for a second consecutive week, reaching 70.44% between September 18 and 24, while the number of customers affected by targeted load reduction has fallen from 1.69 million to just over 240,000, the utility said on Friday.

The EAF, a measure of how much of Eskom's total generation capacity is actually available to produce electricity, pushed the utility's year-to-date figure to 68.06%, its highest level in six years.

Diesel expenditure fell by R4.78 billion year-on-year, from R5.94 billion to R1.16 billion between April 1 and September 24, while unplanned outages improved by 6.83% compared with the previous year, returning about 3,013 megawatts of generation capacity to service.

South Africa has now gone 497 consecutive days without loadshedding since May 16, 2025.

A crisis that cost the economy trillions

The scale of Eskom's turnaround is easier to grasp against the backdrop of what preceded it. In 2023, rotational loadshedding cost the South African economy an estimated R2.8 trillion, the worst year on record, as power cuts occurred on nearly every day of the year and pushed national GDP growth close to zero.

Research from the South African Reserve Bank estimated loadshedding shaved between 0.7 and 3.2 percentage points off annual GDP growth during the crisis years, while a 2023 Nedbank survey of small businesses in township economies found they were losing an average of more than R11,000 in monthly revenue to outages, with some spending between R50,000 and R500,000 to install backup power.

One insurer even found load-shedding periods were linked to a measurable rise in burglaries.

Against that history, Eskom's current diesel savings of R23 billion since the 2023 financial year, and its shift toward using emergency diesel generators for just 1.05% of its annual target load factor of 3%, mark a sharp reversal from a period when diesel-fired turbines were run hard simply to keep the lights on nationally.

Eskom also said it exceeded its particulate emissions reduction target for the year, achieving 0.32 kilograms per megawatt-hour sent out against a target of 0.35, a level it has maintained consistently since October 2025.

Targeted load reduction is a different, more localised problem

Separately from loadshedding, Eskom's Load Reduction Eradication Programme addresses a narrower but persistent issue: intentional, localised electricity restrictions in areas with high illegal connections, meter tampering and overloaded infrastructure, distinct from the nationwide rolling blackouts used when total generation cannot meet total demand.

The number of customers affected by this targeted load reduction has fallen from 1.69 million to 247,617, or just 3.4% of Eskom's customer base, with seven of South Africa's nine provinces now completely free of the practice.

The remaining affected customers are concentrated in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, where more than 60% of previously affected customers have already been restored to normal supply.

The programme, which targets 971 feeders nationally and aims to eliminate load reduction entirely by March 2027, relies on rolling out smart meters, integrating small-scale renewable and battery systems, and expanding Free Basic Electricity support for qualifying households.

So far, 517,810 smart meters have been installed against a target of 577,347, though Eskom said resistance in some communities, including safety incidents, intimidation and work stoppages, has delayed more than 122,000 planned installations.

A total of 546,576 customers are now registered for Free Basic Electricity, up 13% from a baseline of 485,000, representing about 26% of the 2.1 million customers who qualify.

Eskom added that its Summer Outlook and an update on overall power system status will be announced in the coming weeks, a report that will show whether the gains recorded over winter and into September can be sustained as electricity demand typically rises with the onset of hotter weather.