Mozambique Awaits ExxonMobil’s $30bn Rovuma LNG Investment Decision

Mozambique is awaiting ExxonMobil’s final investment decision on the $30 billion Rovuma LNG project after earlier obstacles to the development were cleared.

President Daniel Chapo has said he expects the decision by mid-2026, with July cited publicly and regional observers pointing to September as another possible date.

The Area 4 project is planned to produce 18 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas each year. It is part of a much larger gas resource in the Rovuma Basin, estimated at about 160 trillion cubic feet.

The decision has become important to Mozambique after ExxonMobil lifted force majeure on Rovuma LNG in November 2025. Force majeure had allowed the project to suspend obligations because of conditions beyond the company’s control.

TotalEnergies also restarted its neighbouring Mozambique LNG project in January 2026. The two developments had been waiting on security conditions before their return.

With both projects active again, the next major step for Rovuma LNG is the investment decision required before full development can proceed.

$30bn project awaits approval

Rovuma LNG is planned as an 18-million-tonne-a-year development in Area 4. TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project in Area 1 is planned to produce 13 million tonnes annually through two onshore trains.

The two projects sit within the Rovuma Basin, which holds about 160 trillion cubic feet of gas. The size of the resource has placed Mozambique among the major new LNG provinces identified in the source material.

President Chapo has publicly placed the ExxonMobil decision around the middle of 2026. Regional observers have pointed to September, with shareholder arrangements, gas sales agreements and financing still being aligned for a project of this size.

Mozambique is also using the TotalEnergies project as part of its approach to Rovuma LNG. Maputo has treated the restart of the $20.5 billion Mozambique LNG project as connected to ExxonMobil’s decision on Area 4.

The two developments would give Mozambique a large increase in its LNG production capacity if both are completed.

Coral Norte has already reached a final investment decision. The $7.2 billion floating LNG facility is expected to add 3.6 million tonnes of annual production and is expected to begin operations around 2028.

Its output would roughly double Mozambique’s national LNG production on its own.

Gas wealth and investor terms

The period before ExxonMobil’s decision is also important for Mozambique’s negotiations over the benefits from its gas resources.

Maputo is seeking better fiscal terms, stronger local content requirements and enforceable benefits for communities. These discussions are taking place after Rovuma LNG spent four and a half years under suspension.

The suspension created a long wait for a project valued at $30 billion. The lifting of force majeure in November 2025 removed one major barrier facing ExxonMobil’s development.

TotalEnergies’ restart two months later also changed the position of the two large onshore LNG projects in the basin. Mozambique now has both projects active again, with decisions and financing arrangements still required for their full development.

The international gas market has also changed since the projects were suspended. European buyers are working through a legally binding phase-out of Russian gas.

African LNG has therefore become a nearer-term option for buyers seeking other supplies. The source material says this gives Mozambique greater negotiating strength with investors and buyers.

Rovuma LNG’s final investment decision will determine whether the $30 billion Area 4 project can proceed into its next stage.

The decision will also show how Mozambique balances investor demands with its own expectations on government revenue, local participation and benefits for communities.

The project is planned to produce 18 million tonnes of LNG each year, alongside TotalEnergies’ planned 13 million tonnes in Area 1, giving the Rovuma Basin a major place in Mozambique’s gas plans.