Climate Change Threatens Coffee Farming in Tanzania

Climate change is increasingly disrupting coffee farming in Tanzania, driving up production costs and reducing yields, according to findings from the Paradox of Climate-Smart Coffee (PACSMAC) project.

Speaking on the project’s outcomes, PACSMAC Coordinator Prof Christine Noe said climate-related pressures are particularly affecting smallholder farmers, underscoring the need for stronger policy support to sustain the industry.

“The intention is to support farmers through policy so that they can continue producing effectively, increase their incomes and contribute to national economic growth,” said Prof Noe, who is also Principal of the College of Social Sciences at the University of Dar es Salaam.

She explained that researchers examined the coffee value chain in Tanzania and Ethiopia, analysing policies and laws governing the sector, as well as market flows down to the level of smallholder farmers.

According to Prof Noe, climate change has introduced multiple challenges, including increased spending on irrigation, pesticides, fertilisers and disease control measures, which were previously required at much lower levels.

“Overall, production costs have gone up, while productivity has gone down,” she said.

In northern Tanzania, she noted, many farmers have abandoned coffee farming as shrinking land sizes and declining returns make the crop less viable. In contrast, farmers in southern regions such as Mbinga continue to expand cultivation due to the availability of larger land areas, although they face similar climate-related pressures.

Prof Noe also highlighted the shortage of agricultural extension services, warning that many farmers now rely on agro-input sellers for advice.

“When sellers become advisors, the guidance becomes more about business than agronomy,” she said.

She added that translating research findings into policy action remains a major challenge, stressing the importance of ensuring that evidence-based recommendations reach decision-makers.

The PACSMAC project also focused on capacity building, with four PhD and two Master’s students trained. Research was conducted in key coffee-growing areas, including Kyerwa in the Lake Zone, Rombo in the Northern Zone, and Mbinga and Mbozi in the Southern Highlands.

International researcher and PACSMAC Coordinator Prof Kristjan Jespersen described the impacts of climate change on coffee production as unprecedented.

“We are facing climate change impacts we have never seen before,” he said, calling for wider engagement and new approaches to build a more resilient coffee industry.

Meanwhile, Assistant Director for Policy Research and Innovation at the Ministry of Agriculture, Dr Adela Ng’atigwa, warned that coffee production is under serious threat. She said rising minimum temperatures in coffee-growing regions are already negatively affecting yields, with forecasts pointing to severe declines if adaptation measures are not adopted.

Dr Ng’atigwa said smallholder farmers are grappling with overlapping challenges, including unpredictable weather, the spread of diseases such as Coffee Berry Disease, and mounting economic pressures.

She urged policymakers and private sector actors to act on the evidence by developing tangible support programmes, fair pricing mechanisms and resilient infrastructure.