Nigeria’s Power Supply Stuck at 4,000MW after a Decade — Report

Nigeria’s national electricity grid rarely supplies more than 4,000 megawatts of power at any given time, almost the same output recorded about 10 years ago, even though the country holds Africa’s largest proven natural gas reserves, a new report by the Natural Resource Governance Institute has warned.

The report, obtained on Friday, said the stagnant electricity supply continues to limit economic growth, leaves millions without reliable power and shows that years of investment in gas-fired generation have not translated into better electricity supply.

The report, titled "Nigeria’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Limits, Opportunities and Alternatives", linked the poor performance to ageing power plants, weak gas supply, poor maintenance, transmission bottlenecks and payment problems within the electricity sector. It argued that fixing these long-standing problems is more urgent than building additional gas-fired power stations.

Grid output has failed to improve

The institute said Nigeria's gas-powered electricity system has failed to meet the country's rapidly increasing demand for power. It noted that electricity generation from gas-fired plants reached its highest level around 2016 but has gradually fallen since then.

It stated that the national grid rarely delivers more than 4,000 megawatts at a time, the same level achieved about a decade ago.

The report compared Nigeria's electricity output with other countries to show the size of the gap. It noted that 4,000 megawatts is about one-tenth of the electricity supplied to the city of Tokyo and one-eighth of South Africa's electricity output, even though Nigeria has a much larger population. It also said electricity use per person in Nigeria is less than five per cent of the global average.

The institute argued that these figures show the country has made little progress in expanding reliable electricity supply, even as electricity demand continues to increase because of population growth, industrial activity and urbanisation.

The report linked this situation to poor performance by existing gas-fired plants rather than a shortage of installed capacity alone.

It noted that Nigeria generates more than 80 per cent of its grid electricity from natural gas, making gas the main source of power for the national grid. Yet many generating stations operate well below their installed capacity.

Ageing plants deepen electricity shortage

The report said most of Nigeria's gas-fired power plants are already halfway through, or have exceeded, their designed operational lifespan. It explained that many of the facilities continue to suffer repeated equipment failures, overheating, system trips, fires and long shutdowns because power generation companies cannot afford major rehabilitation work.

It found that only three of the country's 21 gas-fired thermal and steam power plants generated more than half of their installed capacity in 2024. Most operated at one-third of capacity or less, while several produced no electricity throughout the year.

The institute identified poor maintenance, inadequate gas supply, weak financial performance and operational problems as major reasons behind the low output.

It also pointed to the National Integrated Power Projects as some of the weakest-performing government-funded power assets, with several plants barely operating or left idle soon after construction.

The report questioned whether Nigeria should continue focusing on new gas-fired power stations when many existing facilities are unable to produce electricity efficiently.

Looking ahead, it warned that relying mainly on gas would make it difficult for Nigeria to achieve its electricity access goals because problems involving gas supply, transmission infrastructure and payment systems have not been resolved.

Instead, the institute urged policymakers to place greater attention on decentralised renewable energy, especially off-grid and small-scale solar systems, which it said are already supplying electricity to millions of Nigerians outside the national grid.

It also welcomed recent electricity reforms that allow states to establish and regulate their own electricity markets. The report, however, stressed that the reforms will only succeed if federal and state authorities work together through common regulatory standards and coordinated investment plans.

Nigeria is said to hold about 210 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. Successive administrations have promoted gas as the country's transition fuel, while also encouraging renewable energy to improve electricity access.

The institute, however, argued that achieving reliable power supply will depend less on new promises and more on fixing the long-standing weaknesses that have kept national grid output almost unchanged for a decade.