Ethiopia Faces Power Cuts as Dam Water Levels Come Under Pressure

Ethiopia could cut electricity supply to major consumers and reduce power exports to neighbouring countries if poor rainfall continues to limit water entering its hydroelectric dams through September.

The warning comes as projections by the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute point to below-average seasonal rainfall across the country’s central and western highlands, raising the prospect of lower water levels at reservoirs that supply a power system heavily dependent on hydropower.

State-owned Ethiopian Electric Power said prolonged rainfall deficits until September 30 could leave major reservoirs short of their expected seasonal water levels and force emergency action to protect electricity supply.

Ethiopian Electric Power Public Relations Director Moges Mekonnen said the threat could affect the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, whose reservoir can hold 74 billion cubic metres of water.

A shortfall in inflows could reduce baseline generation at the facility, regarded as Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant.

Hydropower provides about 95 to 97 per cent of Ethiopia’s electricity, leaving the grid highly exposed when rainfall fails to replenish dams. Wind farms, including Aysha II and Adama, account for less than five per cent of supply.

Exports and major users under review

If reservoir inflows fall short, Ethiopia may have to cut electricity exports across East Africa as part of measures to protect domestic supply.

Other options under consideration include reducing allocations to heavy-consuming industries such as data mining, protecting essential infrastructure and obtaining as much output as possible from available wind facilities.

Load shedding could also become necessary if dry weather persists.

The possible restrictions underline the importance of reservoir levels to a country whose electricity system depends almost entirely on the water cycle. Lower seasonal rainfall in the central and western highlands could leave less water available for power generation at a time when authorities are trying to maintain supply at home and meet commitments outside the country.

Mekonnen said the position of major dams would become more difficult if rainfall remained below normal through the end of September.

The weather pattern has also exposed differing risks across the Horn of Africa. El Niño conditions are expected to bring severe rainfall shortages to western and central areas while eastern and southern zones face a higher risk of flooding.

The result is that some parts of the region could face too little rainfall as others contend with excess water.

Ethiopian authorities have undertaken environmental programmes intended to protect the water systems feeding major reservoirs.

Over the past seven years, 48 billion tree seedlings have been planted, with 30 per cent placed around the Abay, or Blue Nile, basin.

The programme is intended to reduce silt entering reservoirs and protect the hydrology of watersheds that support hydroelectric generation.

Continued deficits could leave dam operators balancing domestic electricity needs, industrial demand and cross-border sales with less water available for generation.